Is Belarus Trying to Destabilize the EU?

Photo Caption and Credit: A photo taken before the beginning of the informal meeting between the heads of the CIS member states. Russian President Vladimir Putin stands with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (Wikipedia).

Caught in the middle of a contentious dispute between Belarus and the European Union (EU), refugees and asylum seekers from Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are stranded in frigid temperatures at the border of Belarus and Poland. Some governments have alleged that Belarus is trying to instigate a conflict, conceivably to retaliate against EU sanctions.

The growing far-right in Poland. During Poland's Independence Day celebration yesterday, tens of thousands of far-right extremists flooded the streets of Warsaw. As they chanted slogans like "border guards, open fire," they made it clear that they do not want their government to allow refugees to enter the country from the Belarusian border. This is not Poland's first Independence Day marred by anti-refugee sentiments. In 2017, protestors shouted “Pure Poland, white Poland." Knowing that there has been growing hostility in Poland toward refugees, why is Belarus welcoming migrants and then corralling them "gangster-style" at the Polish border?


Europe's Last Dictator's final stand. Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus is often called "Europe's Last Dictator." He has been in office since 1994 and his legacy includes arbitrary detentions, rigged elections, and serious human rights abuses. During the 2020 election cycle, a surprising challenger emerged: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. With Veronika Tsepkalo and Maria Kolesnikova by her side, she led a pro-democracy campaign and many believe she defeated Lukashenko. However, despite internal and global pressure, he refuses to concede defeat. Having left Belarus for safety, Tsikhanouskaya meets with world leaders and encourages them to fight for a free and fair Belarus. Ostracized by virtually the entire international community, Lukashenko must now rely more heavily on Russia for support.

The Kremlin's gambit. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen referred to the situation at the Belarus-Poland border as "a cynical instrumentalization of migrants." The brittle Belarus-Russia alliance is not all one-sided. Russia benefits from having a partner like Lukashenko who has been alienated by Western governments. Belarus's border with Poland is the eastern border of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In mid-October, Russia ended its NATO association, protesting the dismissal of eight Russian diplomats accused of espionage. Moreover, NATO allies worry that Russia is using the large pools of migrants now flowing across Baltic borders to conceal their own secret agents and destabilize the EU.

Support UNHCR's Work: It is important to remember that behind this international dispute there are migrants, including children, who are suffering and dying. This photo, taken by Katsiaryna Golubeva of UNHCR, shows migrants in freezing makeshift encampments at the Belarus border. Yesterday, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), and the Belarus Red Cross were granted access to the camp. The situation is so dire that their main priority is to prevent further deaths and move people to safer locations as quickly as possible. At the time of sending this issue of The Friday Brief, the Belarus Red Cross's website was down, but you can learn more about UNHCR in Belarus here.

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